Cosmic cycles, not carbon dioxide, control the climate

Those who think a war on carbon energy will lower earth’s temperature need to study climate history.Temperatures on earth dance to a cyclical rhythm every hour, every day, every month, every season, every year, and to every beat of the sun-spot and glacial cycles.


These cycles interact to produce a wide range of ever-changing temperatures. Even at the same moment, temperatures vary dramatically from the equator to the poles and from the surface to the stratosphere. For would-be climate “managers” to claim they can calculate a mythical “global temperature” with precision greater than thermometers can measure is statistical nonsense.It is even sillier for people who cannot accurately forecast next week’s weather to claim they can regulate the temperature of the globe by bashing industry and taxing carbon.

Al Gore did a great job to dramatise the recurring glacial cycles revealed by ice cores in his widely-acclaimed work of science fiction. But he missed two inconvenient truths.First, ice cores show that in the glacial spring-time, the temperature rosebefore the CO2 levels rose. Therefore the rising CO2 cannot be a cause of the warming – it is aresult of CO2 being expelled from the warming oceans.Second, at the top of every warm cycle, high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere were unable to prevent earth from cooling into the next cycle of ice.

We are fortunate to live in the Holocene epoch. Its climate history iswell-documented in ice core logs and shows that today’s warm greenhouse earth is probably nearing its end. It will be followed by icehouse earth.

There is no evidence in the climate records that carbon dioxide has a detectable effect on global temperatures. However if our continued use of cheap reliable hydro-carbon energy does slightly delay the onset of the next glacial winter, we should count ourselves lucky.

Viv Forbes is ageologist and founder of the Carbon Sense Coalition